Prediction markets turn the collective judgement of thousands of traders into a single price, and that price often reflects a sharper probability estimate than any one bookmaker's odds.

In a prediction market, traders buy and sell shares in an outcome, and the share price, expressed as a number between zero and one, represents the market's implied probability that the outcome happens.

Prices move because new information arrives and traders act on it, so a price shift usually means informed money has a view, not that the market is guessing.

For bettors, prediction markets are a powerful benchmarking tool: compare a bookmaker's odds against the market price to spot value, but remember that markets can be thin, biased, and wrong, especially on obscure events.