Goals are rare and noisy, which makes them a poor guide to how well a team played. Expected goals, or xG, estimates how many goals a team should have scored from the chances it created.

Each shot gets a value based on distance, angle, shot type, and defensive pressure. A penalty is worth far more than a hopeful shot from distance.

xG helps bettors spot teams whose results flatter or mislead them: a team winning while creating little is often due for regression, and vice versa.

But xG has limits. It does not measure finishing skill perfectly, it varies between providers, and it should support decisions, not replace judgment. Set limits and never bet what you cannot afford to lose.

See the final section of the full article for additional practical guidance on this topic.